African Union Faces Security and Governance Challenges Amid U.S. Policy Shifts

Introduction

The African Union (AU) is confronting an unprecedented convergence of security, governance, and economic challenges in 2025. A wave of military coups, protracted civil wars, and the rise of violent non-state actors have destabilized key regions, while shifting U.S. foreign policy—marked by aggressive tariff regimes and reduced security assistance—has compounded these crises. Against this backdrop, African states are being forced to reassess traditional alliances, diversify partnerships, and pursue regional solutions to safeguard stability and development. This report examines the interplay of these dynamics and their implications for the continent’s future.

1. Security Challenges: Coups, Conflict, and Non-State Actors

1.1. The Coup Epidemic

Since 2020, Africa has witnessed six successful military takeovers, with Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea transitioning to junta-led governments. These coups reflect deep-seated grievances over governance failures, economic stagnation, and security mismanagement. The AU’s suspension of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from membership has done little to reverse the trend, as juntas consolidate power and reject Western influence.

• Strategic Realignments: Junta-led states have pivoted toward Russia, signing defense pacts and welcoming Wagner Group successors like the Africa Corps. Niger’s cancellation of U.S. drone base agreements in 2024 and Mali’s expulsion of UN peacekeepers underscore this shift.
• Regional Fragmentation: The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), creating rival blocs and undermining collective security frameworks.

1.2. Civil Wars and Spillover Violence

• Sudan: The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces has killed over 13,000 people since 2023, displaced 8 million, and triggered ethnic massacres in Darfur. The AU’s mediation efforts have been hamstrung by internal divisions