Germany's New Coalition: Pushing for a Stronger EU Amid Internal Disagreements

As Germany prepares to welcome its new coalition government led by Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz, the country's approach to European Union (EU) affairs is set to undergo significant changes. While the incoming administration shows a united front in its desire to strengthen the EU's geopolitical capabilities, internal disagreements persist on how to overcome obstacles to EU decision-making.

A Shift Towards a More Geopolitical EU

The draft coalition agreement between the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) reveals a strong alignment on EU policy, particularly in strengthening the bloc's security and defense capabilities^[1]. This shift comes in response to several key factors:

1. Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine
2. Uncertainty surrounding America's commitment to European security
3. The need for greater European strategic autonomy

The coalition partners have pledged to "exhaust all possibilities to strengthen the EU's ability to act and its strategic sovereignty"^[1:1]. This commitment reflects Germany's recognition of its role as a leading force in shaping EU policy, especially in light of recent global challenges.

Key Priorities for EU Reform

The incoming German government has outlined several priorities for reforming and strengthening the EU:

1. Defense and Security

With the looming possibility of reduced U.S. involvement in European security, Germany is pushing for increased EU defense capabilities. The coalition agreement emphasizes the need for a "new European defense community" that includes non-EU countries^[2]. This approach aligns with Merz's recognition that Europe must prepare for the possibility of diminished U.S. support for NATO^[3].

2. Geopolitical Budget Allocation

The coalition aims to prioritize defense capabilities and competitiveness in the EU's long-term budget discussions. This marks a departure from the traditional focus on maintaining the status quo^[1:2].

3. EU Enlargement

The draft agreement calls for a new approach to EU enlargement, describing it as a "geopolitical necessity". The coalition proposes gradual integration of candidate countries into EU institutions, even before full membership is achieved^[1:3].

4. Foreign Policy Decision-Making

Both parties stress the importance of extending majority voting to EU foreign policy decisions. This would prevent individual member states, such as Hungary, from blocking measures like sanctions through the current unanimity requirement^[1:4].

5. Support for Ukraine

The coalition reaffirms Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes", although stopping short of the "whatever it takes" phrasing favored by more hawkish voices^[1:5].

Challenges to EU Decision-Making

Despite the broad agreement on strengthening the EU's geopolitical capabilities, the incoming coalition faces several challenges in improving EU decision-making processes:

1. The "German Vote" Problem

Germany's tendency to abstain from EU Council votes when coalition partners disagree has become a significant issue. Known as the "German vote", this practice effectively blocks EU legislation under qualified majority voting rules^[4]. The frequency of such abstentions increased during the previous "traffic light" coalition, leading to Germany reversing previously agreed decisions on key issues like the Due Diligence Directive and the European AI Act^[4:1].

2. Coalition Dynamics

While the new two-party coalition may find it easier to reach agreements compared to the previous three-party arrangement, internal disagreements on EU matters persist. The draft coalition agreement reveals that the parties are still at odds over how to overcome Germany's indecision on EU matters^[1:6].

3. Balancing National and European Interests

The incoming government must navigate the delicate balance between pursuing German national interests and serving the broader European interest. This challenge is particularly acute given the need to reset relationships with key EU partners like France^[5].

Merz's Vision for German Leadership in the EU

Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz has outlined several strategies to enhance Germany's role in EU affairs:

1. Making EU affairs a top priority ("Chefsache") by giving the Chancellery a bigger say in European matters^[4:2].
2. Establishing a National Security Council in the chancellery to streamline decision-making on foreign, security, and EU policy^[3:1].
3. Planning visits to Paris and Warsaw on his first day in office to strengthen relationships with key European partners^[4:3].
4. Engaging positively with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to improve post-Brexit relations^[4:4].

Merz's approach aims to present a more united German voice on EU matters, which he sees as essential for a stronger European voice on the global stage^[4:5].

Implications for EU Policy and Governance

The incoming German government's push for a more geopolitically capable EU has several potential implications:

1. Defense and Security

Germany's commitment to increased defense spending and support for a European defense community could significantly boost the EU's military capabilities. This shift may lead to greater European strategic autonomy, especially in light of uncertainties surrounding U.S. commitment to NATO^[3:2].

2. EU Decision-Making Processes

The coalition's support for extending majority voting in foreign policy matters could streamline EU decision-making, particularly on issues like sanctions. However, this change would require broader support from other member states and potential treaty reforms^[1:7].

3. EU Enlargement

The proposed gradual integration of candidate countries into EU institutions before full membership could reshape the EU's expansion strategy. This approach may offer a middle ground between the current all-or-nothing membership process and the need to strengthen the EU's geopolitical influence^[1:8].

4. EU Budget Priorities

The coalition's emphasis on prioritizing defense capabilities and competitiveness in the EU budget could lead to significant shifts in funding allocations. This may result in heated debates with other member states that prioritize different areas of EU spending^[1:9].

Challenges Ahead

Despite the coalition's ambitious plans for EU reform, several challenges lie ahead:

1. Internal Disagreements: The coalition partners must find ways to overcome their differences on EU decision-making processes to present a united German front in Brussels^[1:10].
2. Building European Consensus: Germany will need to convince other EU member states to support its vision for a more geopolitically capable union, which may face resistance from countries with different priorities.
3. Balancing Domestic and European Interests: The new government must navigate the complex task of pursuing German national interests while also serving the broader European agenda^[5:1].
4. U.S.-EU Relations: With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, Germany and the EU face the challenge of maintaining transatlantic cooperation while also pursuing greater strategic autonomy^[5:2].
5. Russia and Ukraine: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine will continue to test the EU's resolve and ability to act decisively on foreign policy matters^[3:3].

Conclusion

Germany's incoming coalition government has set an ambitious agenda for strengthening the EU's geopolitical capabilities and decision-making processes. While there is broad agreement on the need for a more assertive and capable European Union, internal disagreements on how to achieve this goal persist.

The success of Germany's push for EU reform will depend on the coalition's ability to overcome its internal differences, build consensus among EU partners, and navigate complex geopolitical challenges. As Europe faces a period of significant uncertainty and change, the actions of the new German government will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the European Union and its place on the global stage.