Key Economic Indicators Signal Weakening U.S. Outlook: An In-Depth Report
Introduction
The U.S. economy is showing mounting signs of deceleration as a broad array of economic indicators point to a weakening outlook. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell sharply by 1.0% in April, marking its largest monthly drop since March 2023. This decline, coupled with widespread deterioration across most components of the index-including consumer expectations, building permits, and manufacturing hours-has heightened concerns about the country’s growth prospects for the remainder of 2025. While the LEI’s six-month growth rate has moved further into negative territory, it has not yet triggered the formal recession signal. The Conference Board now forecasts U.S. GDP growth to slow to 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact from new tariffs expected to hit in the third quarter. This report examines the underlying data, the drivers of the slowdown, the risks ahead, and the implications for households, businesses, and policymakers.
