Mali’s Military Junta Dissolves All Political Parties: A Strategic Consolidation of Power in the Sahel

Introduction

Mali’s military junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, has escalated its authoritarian consolidation by dissolving all political parties and banning political meetings, marking a critical turning point in the nation’s post-coup trajectory. This decree, announced on May 13–14, 2025, eliminates the last vestiges of organized opposition and institutionalizes military rule, effectively erasing prospects for a democratic transition. The move occurs against a backdrop of escalating jihadist violence, economic collapse, and regional instability, reflecting a broader trend of military takeovers and democratic erosion across West Africa. This report analyzes the junta’s power play, its implications for Mali and the Sahel, and the geopolitical shifts reshaping the region.

I. Background: Mali’s Political Turmoil Since 2020

The 2020–2021 Coups and Broken Promises
Colonel Assimi Goïta first seized power in August 2020, ousting President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta amid widespread protests over corruption and insecurity. The junta initially pledged an 18-month transition to civilian rule but staged a second coup in May 2021, removing interim President Bah Ndaw and Prime Minister Moctar Ouane. Goïta assumed the presidency, promising elections by February 2022. However, the junta repeatedly delayed voting, citing logistical challenges and insecurity, while systematically dismantling democratic institutions.

Escalating Authoritarianism
By 2023, the junta had expelled French counterterrorism forces and the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA), replacing international partners with Russian Wagner Group mercenaries. This pivot aligned Mali with military regimes in Burkina Faso and Niger, forming the “Alliance of Sahel States” and withdrawing from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025. Domestically, the junta silenced critics through arbitrary arrests, media censorship, and restrictive laws banning “subversive speech.”

II. The Dissolution Decree: Events and Immediate Aftermath

The National Conference and Goïta’s Power Grab
In April 2025, the junta convened a national dialogue-boycotted by major opposition groups-that recommended extending Goïta’s rule until 2030 and dissolving political parties. The proposal sparked immediate protests in Bamako, where hundreds demanded multi-party elections under banners reading, “Down with dictatorship, long live democracy.” On May 13, the National Transition Council (NTC), a junta-aligned legislative body, ratified the decree, which Goïta signed into law the following day.

Key Provisions of the Decree

• Dissolution of All Political Parties: Over 100 parties, including the Coalition for the Development of Mali (CODEM) and the Union for the Republic (UPR), were disbanded.
• Ban on Political Meetings: Members of dissolved parties face imprisonment for organizing gatherings.
• Purge of Party Affiliations: Public officials must renounce party ties but retain their positions, ensuring bureaucratic compliance.

Abductions and Intimidation
The decree followed a wave of enforced disappearances targeting opposition leaders:

• Abba Alhassane (CODEM secretary-general) and El Bachir Thiam (Yelema party head) were abducted by masked gunmen on May 8.
• Abdoul Karim Traore, a youth leader, vanished on May 11, with colleagues alleging state-sponsored kidnapping.
  Human Rights Watch documented similar patterns of repression, noting that detainees are often held in military camps without due process.

III. Justifications and Propaganda: The Junta’s Narrative

Security and “National Unity” Rhetoric
The junta justifies its crackdown by framing political pluralism as a threat to stability. Government spokesmen claim parties “exploit ethnic divisions” and “collude with terrorists,” a narrative amplified by state media. This rhetoric resonates in a country where jihadist groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) control vast rural territories.

Exploiting Anti-Western Sentiment
State propaganda portrays the junta as defenders of sovereignty against “neo-colonial” Western powers. By aligning with Russia and leveraging anti-French sentiment, Goïta casts himself as a pan-Africanist leader resisting foreign interference. The Wagner Group’s presence-now exceeding 1,500 mercenaries-bolsters this image, despite widespread atrocities linked to Russian forces.

IV. Suppression of Dissent: Tactics and Human Rights Violations

Legal Repression

• Decree 2025-05/CNT: Criminalizes political organizing under counterterrorism statutes, punishable by 10–20 years imprisonment.
• Media Blackouts: Private outlets like Radio Omega and France 24 remain banned, while journalists face harassment for critical reporting.

Violent Crackdowns
Security forces have dispersed protests with live ammunition, resulting in at least 24 deaths and 2,200 arrests since 2023. The junta also employs pro-government militias to terrorize dissidents, as seen in the May 2025 abductions.

V. Regional Context: The Sahel’s Democratic Backsliding

The “Alliance of Sahel States”
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger-all ruled by military juntas-formalized a mutual defense pact in 2024 and exited ECOWAS in January 2025. This bloc, now aligned with Russia, rejects Western democracy models, advocating instead for “indigenous governance.”

ECOWAS in Crisis
ECOWAS, once a bastion of democratic norms, has failed to counter the region’s authoritarian shift. Sanctions and diplomatic pressure proved ineffective, and the bloc’s credibility eroded further when Senegal’s President Macky Sall postponed elections in February 2024 without consequences.

VI. International Reactions and Geopolitical Shifts

Western Condemnation

• The U.S. and EU imposed targeted sanctions on junta officials and halted $500 million in aid.
• France condemned the dissolution as “a grave step backward,” though its influence has waned since the 2022 troop withdrawal.

Russia’s Expanding Footprint
The Wagner Group entrenches Russian influence through:

• Military Training: Wagner operatives oversee counterinsurgency operations in central Mali.
• Resource Exploitation: Gold and uranium mines fund the junta, bypassing international sanctions.

China’s Ambivalent Stance
Beijing avoids overt support but provides economic lifelines, importing Malian cotton and financing infrastructure projects.

VII. Humanitarian and Security Implications

Jihadist Resurgence
Since the junta’s takeover, violence has surged:

• Civilian deaths increased by 170% between 2022 and 2025.
• JNIM blockaded Timbuktu in 2024, cutting off food supplies to 500,000 residents.

Humanitarian Crisis

• Displacement: 2.8 million Malians are internally displaced or refugees.
• Famine: UN agencies warn 7.5 million face acute food insecurity due to conflict and climate shocks.

VIII. Future Outlook: Prospects for Democracy and Stability

Authoritarian Entrenchment
The junta’s roadmap envisions Goïta ruling until 2030, with “patriotic education” programs indoctrinating youth. A proposed 2026 constitutional referendum may formalize one-party rule.

Resistance and Fragmentation
Northern Tuareg rebels and southern pro-democracy activists threaten to fracture Mali. The Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) has clashed with Wagner-backed forces near Kidal, risking civil war.

Regional Domino Effect
Burkina Faso and Niger may emulate Mali’s dissolution of parties, further destabilizing West Africa.

Conclusion

Mali’s junta has crossed a Rubicon, extinguishing multi-party democracy to secure its grip on power. This decision exacerbates humanitarian suffering, empowers jihadists, and deepens the Sahel’s alignment with autocratic blocs. For the international community, the crisis underscores the limits of sanctions and the urgent need for coordinated strategies addressing governance failures and climate-driven instability. Without meaningful intervention, Mali’s dissolution of parties may herald a darker era of militarized rule across Africa.